Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.483230 9.976840 11.619296 13.554403 15.766622 18.211253 21.111569
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.135830 8.137868 10.571693 13.724266 17.673113 22.427065 28.551336
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.489204 6.629937 9.472784 13.467760 18.870413 25.847747 35.451010
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.290375 5.364868 8.349630 12.858647 19.376571 28.313635 41.315601
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.498371 4.462557 7.502293 12.400402 19.906144 30.742283 47.267092
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.037701 3.950291 7.107766 12.489869 21.160392 34.235897 54.975370
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.638993 3.440865 6.606253 12.296816 21.902336 36.981465 61.771823
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.453507 3.267348 6.626275 12.939789 24.015808 41.983390 72.392148
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.251545 3.012926 6.449897 13.198243 25.487643 46.061011 81.854638
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.061847 2.737516 6.180916 13.236355 26.557130 49.539113 90.585768
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.905583 2.496245 5.932662 13.266425 27.593000 53.017614 99.547918
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.849608 2.472926 6.124107 14.173234 30.326428 59.633469 114.297427
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.765157 2.366889 6.134105 14.740186 32.524634 65.571390 128.481373
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.688519 2.263421 6.135005 15.293642 34.766256 71.793051 143.672119
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.581069 2.047469 5.836852 15.157352 35.608072 75.491130 154.586640
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.467399 1.778492 5.356782 14.537014 35.370671 77.107121 161.765501
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.380365 1.561557 4.961944 14.047823 35.341988 79.100720 169.764765
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.330875 1.450676 4.824804 14.156057 36.623516 83.781755 183.220345
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.278100 1.309862 4.575397 13.943843 37.153856 86.966779 193.948418
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.260527 1.293456 4.681741 14.662868 39.900784 94.929849 214.659469
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.232984 1.228626 4.629864 14.951779 41.653744 100.908393 231.700159
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.203028 1.142720 4.495101 14.994510 42.815119 105.698336 246.594256
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.176956 1.063261 4.364243 15.028140 43.954162 110.513938 261.822621